The Ashes in Australia have ended up coinciding with significant moments in the Test career of Pat Cummins. Eight years ago, he ended up playing his first-ever Test on home soil against England. Four years on from then, he dramatically took over as Test captain in the most unusual of circumstances.

And now with the English tourists only a month away from arriving on these shores, the 32-year-old fast bowler seems likely to miss a chunk of the Ashes, if not the entirety of the series. Courtesy of the irksome lumbar bone stress issue on his lower back having not healed in time for him to start bowling again.

As of today, the chances of Cummins taking the field for the first Test in Perth that starts on November 21 look very slim. Though he has been busy with his rehab ever since the issue was detected post the tour of the Caribbean, he’s learnt to have not started bowling yet. Or be in a position to do so in the next few weeks. According to those in the know, with a lower back concern of this nature, it’s only once Cummins starts bowling that he and the medical staff can be suitably assured that it’s healed well enough for him to return to Test cricket. In one senior Physio’s opinion, this kind of injury could even take 8-10 months to recover from when it comes to getting back to bowling at full tilt but it’s unlikely Cummins’ is as bad.

Though there have been suggestions that Cummins may miss Perth for the last few weeks, this is the most definitive report that’s emerged about his availability.

What Cummins’ absence does to start with is tip the scales, at least a bit, with regards to Australia being overwhelming favourites once more for an Ashes series at home. There’s firstly Cummins the bowler, who averages 21.50 for his 44 wickets across nine home Tests against England, that they’ll miss out on greatly. There’s also Cummins the captain who’s inspired his team on multiple occasions to spectacular wins during his 37 Tests in-charge with both ball and bat. Not to forget the Cummins who repeatedly comes in and breaks open Test matches just around the time the opposition seem to have gained some momentum.

There’s also the trickle-down effect that could transpire from Cummins missing out on multiple if not all five Tests. Australia are blessed to have Scott Boland primed to come in as a replacement, as he has done so successfully over the last few summers on Australian soil. There is no doubting the impact that Boland, who is coming fresh off a Test hat-trick and still averages a ridiculous 12.63 for his 49 wickets at home, will have when given the chance. But the overall look of the Australian attack looks a whole lot different if Boland starts the series as one of the primary fast bowlers expected to play in all five Tests.